In a conference call this morning, Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute warned, "We're entering a new world, where the price of grain is moving upward towards the price of oil." He went on to say that, in his estimation, demand for corn to produce ethanol in 2008 could surge to 139 million tons, which is more than double what the 60 million tons the USDA estimated last February. What's startling is that that number would equal "exactly half of the entire harvest" for the year.

In other words, the "Food vs. Fuel" debate is kicking into high gear. Brown points out that the impending dramatic increase in demand could have staggering worldwide implications. He claims that over reliance on corn as fuel would not only increase the price of corn, but of other grains as well – since consumers would substitute one grain for another and also because the crops compete for land.

This, in turn, would drive up the prices of most of our foods as well as our fuel. "If you look in your refrigerator you'll see milk, meat, eggs and cheese," Brown says. "All of those are fed on corn, so a rise in price will have far reaching impacts." He adds that demands for corn for fuel production would also decrease our ability to export corn to other markets.

As a stark example, Brown highlights Iowa, which edges out Illinois as the leading US producer of corn, surpassing Canada's entire output. He quotes Iowa State University Economist Robert Wisner, who reports "Iowa’s demand for corn from processing plants that are on line, expanding, under construction, or being planned as of late 2006 totaled 2.7 billion bushels. Yet even in a good year the state harvests only 2.2 billion bushels."

Think about that: As distilleries compete with feeders for grain, Iowa could become a corn importer!

What's the solution? Brown implores us to slow down our rush to build ethanol plants. He points out that even if we converted the entire US grain harvest to ethanol, it would only satisfy 16 percent of US auto fuel needs. On the other hand, raising automotive fuel efficiency standards by 20 percent – perhaps by shifting to gas-electric plug-in hybrids – could have more impact without risking the price of food along the way.