Laying Odds on the Plug-in Hybrid Race

This year the prospect of commercial passenger plug-in hybrids has gone from a discussion of "if" to "when." Trial runs of modified Prius and Escape hybrids are accelerating faster than you can say Jeff Gordon, so it is an appropriate time to get out the crystal ball and project who will be the first autto manufacturer to sell a passenger vehicles to consumers in mass quantities.

It is probably even money right now whether the first plug-in is available in 2009 or 2010 as several companies have set that as the time frame. Advances -- or at least refinements -- to existing necessary battery technology are needed for plug-ins to be commercially viable.

Here are the odds and why:

Toyota: 3 to 1
Toyota has sold way more hybrids than the rest of the universe combined. After initially brushing off plug-ins, Toyota is now working with universities to refine the technology and getting road test data to determine the right technology mix and performance characteristics. Toyota also benefits from the research from third parties who are tweaking the Prius, a community that hasn't taken to the other hybrids with anything close to the same enthusiasm.

GM: 5 to 1
GM has trumpeted the Volt (which they consider an all electric) so much so that the company can't afford to miss its deadline of 2010. While they have come from far back in the pack, the engineering resources and the motivation to succeed is greater with GM than any other company. But GM's E-Flex platform is the most ambitious as it supports multiple sources of fuel, so getting in right within a few years is a huge technical challenge.

Phoenix Motorcars: 8 to 1
Phoenix has recently broadened its focus from all electric to also include plug-in hybrids. The technology developed for its electric SUT appears solid, and developing a plug-in version should be relatively straightforward. The biggest challenge could be scaling up to make a mass market vehicle and navigating the regulatory hurdles for getting the vehicle approved.

Ford: 14 to 1
Despite making the first hybrid SUV, Ford hasn't moved the ball forward since the Escape Hybrid came out. Only recently has the company expressed interest in making a plug-in model, but an agreement with Southern California Edison to test plug-in Escape indicates the company believes there is a market for plug-ins.  Xcel Energy is also testing plug-in Escapes.

Quantum Fuel Systems: 20 to 1

The company will show off a premium ($80K) sports sedan plug-in hybrid in January and says it will produce 15,000 cars per year starting in late 2009. They could be the first company with a market-ready plug-in, but scaling up to mass production and uncertain battery technology could cause delays. Quantum is smart for bundling solar panels and a fast recharger with the vehicle so that those with enough means can really show off their green bonafides.

Someone else: 50 to 1

Could Tesla Motors or some other Google-supported company jump into the race late? Could Honda reverse it's "we're not interested in plug-ins" position? Not likely. Could a Japanese or Chinese company surprise everyone?