Despite a growing consensus on the need to address global warming, the climate in the Senate still isn't right for passing legislation to reduce carbon emissions. The Lieberman-Warner bill failed to advance in the Senate on Friday because the Democratic and Republican camps largely continued to stick together in voting.

The Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2008 fell short of the 60 votes needed to end a Republican filibuster and will not be brought up for a vote again until next year after a new Congress and president are sworn in. The bill would have required a reduction in carbon emissions by 71 percent by 2050.

Jim Pierobon, an energy and climate public affairs consultant in Washington, DC, says the inability to get 60 votes to prevent a filibuster should not come as a surprise. "It is very clear now just how much of an uphill battle assembling the requisite support for a climate bill to become law will be, even with a new administration and the next Congress starting work in January."

Democrats were nearly united in support of the bill with the exception of four senators from states with economies that derive substantial revenue from the coal industry. The four Democratic defectors were:

Sherrod Brown, Ohio
Mary Landrieu, Louisiana
Tim Johnson, South Dakota
Byron Dorgan, North Dakota

Pierobon says the less-than-full support from Democrats clouds the picture for future climate change votes. "What do (climate change) advocates do with today’s vote results, especially with regards to Senators Brown, Dorgan, Johnson and Landrieu?

Republicans are concerned about the potential for a carbon cap and trade system to increase the price of energy. With several Republican seats at risk in November and oil at nearly $140 a barrel, the majority have been unwilling to vote with the Democrats. However, seven Republican senators broke away from their party in voting for the bill. With the exception of New Hampshire, all of the Republicans who voted for the bill come from coastal states which are likely to be most affected by climate change should sea levels begin to rise:

John Warner (the co-sponsor), Virginia
Gordon Smith, Oregon
Susan Collins, Maine
Olymipa Snowe, Maine
Elizabeth Dole, North Carolina
John Sununu, New Hampshire
Mel Martinez, Florida

The expected change in the party split in next year's Congress somewhat enhances the chance of a climate bill passing, according to Pierobon. "Given the way the political winds are blowing, they can probably count on a handful of votes in the Senate moving in their direction next year. But the House is a different challenge. Any bi-partisan approach means working with Rep. Joe Barton of Texas and he’s a non-believer. Can allied Democrats win enough seats in the U.S. House to tip the scales in favor of a robust climate bill to overcome Joe Barton?"