Rail travel’s necessity is increasing even as Amtrak’s future looks questionable. Expanding rail is a crucial strategy to use to help citizens shoulder the crushing weight of oil prices. As petroleum markets increasingly behave like whale oil, those who can have quickly substituted mass transit for driving. Rail use has skyrocketed, maxing out most systems and forcing expansion. This is true of Amtrak too, but an array of onerous forces hinder the rapid expansion necessary to meet demand.

Amtrak could do a lot to be more efficient. According to the GAO, “The current structure does not appear to effectively target federal funds where they may provide the greatest level of public benefits, such as reduced traffic congestion and pollution.” Amtrak’s money is currently distributed politically but not efficiently. Amtrak could maximize its service by adding routes in dense metropolitan areas and cutting trips to less popular destinations, more ably serving large populations with current capacity. Yet so far legislators of low-population states, and unions worried about job cuts have stymied efficient route changes.

Amtrak has the opportunity to save on energy costs by asserting its purchasing power through a Power Purchase Agreement or Community Choice Aggregation, using the buying power at all their locations to get lower rates on renewable energy. Their costs go beyond fuel though -- clearly a new business model needs to be negotiated with losses of a billion dollars annually.

Part of Amtrak’s problem is the that the whole rail industry is ill prepared for what’s ahead: ridership that recalls a time when cars were a luxury. The companies that make railway cars, components and track have contracted with demand for their products --- products that Amtrak now desperately needs. Amtrak is going to be investing hundreds of millions of dollars in railway cars, either by renovating old ones or by buying new ones.

Finally, Amtrak suffers from a privatization tug-of-war. While privatization may lead to gains for efficiency and "relief" from labor agreements, there are lots of negative issues with privatizing critical transportation commodities (e.g. gas prices). Because transportation is such a necessity, it is something that really should be protected from market manipulation,  even if still subject to political manipulation; at least citizens have a say in the latter scenario. Also, if privatized, Amtrak would be regulated so heavily it could lose its efficiency edge. In any case, the tea leaves read big change in Amtrak’s future; let’s hope it happens fast enough to keep pace with changing times.