One of the on-going issues with wind power has been reliability. There are years' worth of records showing which areas are predisposed to windiness, but even wind power experts have a hard time predicting whether a given area will be windy next week.

German researchers are developing a software solution to the wind power prediction problem. Their project, called Previento, can predict the electrical output from wind farms four days in advance. Previento can actually estimate outputs up to ten days in advance, but reliability falls off quickly. This information will provide German electrical grids with a way to plan when they will need non-wind-based electricity to cover calmer days.

Previento uses information from a variety of weather models, as well as topographical information, and then makes a calculation. What really sets Previento apart from other weather prediction efforts is the fact that Previento also provides the margin of error, giving power companies an idea of how reliable forecasts are and the ability to create a comfort zone when planning for electrical grids.

The software is capable of making predictions for selected wind farms, particular counties, selected areas and the entire country. It can also make predictions in increments as small as 15 minutes.

Photo — Only Point Five