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2600 Terawatts of Solar by 2030?

I thought I had a handle on how fast the renewable energy market is growing, until I saw a report on solar power touting some incredible numbers.

The Solar Generation report (PDF), published by Greenpeace and the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, says that solar power could meet 14% of the world's energy needs by 2030.

The estimated 2600 TWh of electricity produced per year would bring the joys of microwave popcorn to 3 billion people who had no access before. This sunny outlook also forecasts a 1.6 billion tonne reduction in CO2 and 10 million extra jobs related to the installation and maintenance of photovoltaic systems.

"Solar photovoltaic electricity has the potential to supply energy to over 4 billion people by 2030 if adequate policy measures are put in place today," said Ernesto Macias, EPIA President.

What are those 'measures?' As stated in the report, they include politically-supported programs such as subsidies and other incentives. Specific mention is made of feed-in tariffs, which give renewable energy producers guaranteed access to the grid and require utilities to buy the green juice at après-determined cost.

The report also has a nice breakdown of current PV technologies and markets. A less optimistic scenario in the report has 1300 terawatt hours being produced, about half as much as the shoot-for-the-moon version.

Unlike the report on wind energy I blogged a few days ago, this one isn't merely predictive, but aspirational. The authors are laying out a vision for solar power and making the argument that better policy is required to make a big dent in the global energy mix. Overall, a pretty nice report by the folks at Greenpeace, but I'd be happier if they stopped bothering me outside the Whole Foods at lunch time.

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