The scientific world has reached an unprecedented consensus on the existence of global warming, but a few diehard skeptics continually challenge the establishment to provide examples that a human-created warming trend exists, and is leading to measurable negative impacts on humankind. While the role of global warming in recent increases in tropical activity is still largely disputed, a two-year long drought in Australia may be the most compelling evidence yet.

The Murray-Darling Basin in Southeastern Australia has historically been one of the continent’s most ecologically productive regions, home to flocks of pelicans and long-necked turtles. It has also been Australia’s breadbasket, producing millions of tons of grain and supporting thousands of cattle. But the recent drought—dubbed The Big Dry—is the worst in over 117 years, and is stressing even the indigenous plants on this largely arid continent; 4 out of every 5 eucalyptus trees in the basin are either dead or under stress due to the dry conditions.

Temperature increases over the last half century have almost certainly played a role, with each degree Celsius increase reducing water flows into the region some 15 percent. “There's no question about the evidence in terms of increased temperature,” says Wayne Meyer of Adelaide University. “We have seen this persistent increase in temperature over the last 30 or 50 years. All the projections are that that will continue.”

While Australia’s natural geography, lacking large mountains and containing massive deserts, makes it naturally prone to increased temperatures, poor water management has also played a role in the depletion of the Murray-Darling Basin. Farms along the watershed, which sprawls areas across four Australian states, have all taken from the watershed with a near-reckless abandon, leading to a tragedy of the commons, where small excesses on the part of individuals have had catastrophic effects on the larger system.

The federal government finally seized control of the watershed in 2007, and increased managerial diligence, along with improved rainfall this past July, have allowed the wheat harvest to recover substantially, to a projected 23.7 million tons from its 13-million-ton low mark last year. Still, serious problems persist in the region, with depleted groundwater stores and reservoirs at a mere 20% of capacity.

Due to the complex nature of the problem, it’s clear that multifaceted solutions will be required. Pipelines bringing fresh water into the region are already slated for construction, and an innovative government buyback system will pay upstream irrigators not to divert the rivers. Still, unless the warming trend reducing rainfalls and stream flows into the region can be slowed on a global level, the Murray Darling Basin may become, in the words of global warming activist Tim Flannery, “an Aral Sea.”