Forecasting wind power must be the hot new trend because the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are both working on separate systems to better predict wind for use as an alternative source of energy.

The variability of wind makes it somewhat unreliable as a steady source of power for the United States – at least for now. Finding valuable solutions to understand and more efficiently harness wind could make the United States, and the world for that matter, less dependent on coal-fired and natural gas-fired plants. But now it’s difficult to predict when and how strongly the wind will blow at wind farms, and miscalculating wind predictions can cost operators big bucks.

Because large amounts of electricity cannot be stored cost effectively today, (although it is being worked on) power generated by a wind, solar or any other power plant must be used immediately. If a utility depends on wind energy and there is not enough wind, the utility must either "spin up" additional fossil fuel resources or buy energy on the spot market, which can be expensive. Conversely, if there is too much wind, the surge of energy can overload the system.

A more stable wind forecasting system could have a considerable impact on the North American electricity industry, thus allowing a reduction of wind power prices in the United States, according to Science Daily, which reported on the DOE’s new initiative.

Argonne National Laboratory, run by the Department of Energy, has requested INESC Porto, a Portuguese nonprofit that has developed wind power projects throughout Europe, to develop a platform to forecast wind power in the United States. The project that started last December and is expected to end in September 2010 aims to provide a three-day prediction of wind so operators can adjust systems accordingly and reduce wind power production costs.

Similarly, the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory are working with Xcel Energy to provide detailed, local weather forecasts that will enable the utility to better integrate electricity generated from wind into the power grid.

NCAR has agreed to develop a prototype advanced wind prediction system during the next 18 months. After six months, it will begin to generate test forecasts for Xcel Energy wind farms in Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, Texas and Wyoming by incorporating observations of current atmospheric conditions from satellites, aircraft, weather radars, ground-based weather stations and sensors on the wind turbines. It will continue to improve the system over the following 12 months before transferring the prototype system to Xcel Energy for operational use.

If either or both platforms prove to be reliable indicators of wind patterns, we could see much more use of wind power in the near future that could help meet states’ renewable energy portfolio goals.